Tag: genuine fixed matches

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12 – May – 2021

2 games ticket 95% WIN RATE

Schalke – Hertha: 2 Odd:1.70 FT:1:2

Dinamo – Varaždin: 1 Odd:1.40 FT:2:2

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Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting is an easy way to make money on football without taking any risk. It involves taking both sides of the same bet — which means you’ll whatever the outcome — but at different odds. The process is simple: sign up to a wide variety of bookmakers and betting exchanges, and look for discrepancies in market odds. If you find one site offering more favorable odds than another, place the bet on that site and take the opposite bet on the other site. One bet will win and the other will lose, but since there’s a difference in the odds, you’re guaranteed to walk away with a profit.

One variation on regular arbitrage betting uses the “Price Boost” promotions offered by many bookmakers to create new opportunities. From time to time, bookmakers offer preferential odds on some sporting outcome to encourage new users to sign-up and place bets. If you take advantage of these preferential odds, you can often find arbitrage opportunities with great upside.

Sure Fixed Matches

Odds usually don’t vary too much between bookmakers and betting exchanges. Odds might vary by a few percent under normal conditions, or as much as 10% during promotional periods. This represents the margin you can make with arbitrage betting: with a £1,000 bankroll, you can hope to make around £20 with regular arbitrage opportunities, or as much as five times that with “Price Boost” promotions.

Pros and Cons

The pros of betting arbitrage are its low risk and reasonable reward. Another pro is that it allows you to make use of betting promotions. As for cons, the biggest issues with arbitrage are that there are few opportunities out there and some bookmakers might close your account if you’re too successful.

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News betting relies on placing bets as soon as fresh news is released. Once again, the idea is nothing clever: just keep an eye out for positive or negative sporting news, and as soon as it’s released, use that information to place favorable bets. The best example of this would be if a football team publishes a weak line-up for an upcoming game; if you’re quick about it, you can place a bet for the opposing team at excellent odds.

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genuine fixed matches

genuine fixed matches

9 – May – 2021

2 games ticket 95% WIN RATE

AS Roma – Crotone: 1 Odd:1.40 FT:4:1

Rennes – Paris SG: 2 Odd:1.53 FT:1:1

genuine fixed matches


Using Mathematics to Estimate Value

Although finding the perfect bet (i.e. the one with the most value) should always be the goal, you need to know where to look and, importantly, what you’re looking for. It’s no good understanding the concept of value and not knowing where to apply it. To this end, you can use an advanced football betting strategy known as Poisson Distribution.

In simple terms, Poisson Distribution is a way of quantifying how likely random occurrences will be over a fixed amount of time. For example, if you know that Arsenal average 1.5 goals per game, you can use a distribution formula to predict how likely they are to score XX goals in a certain scenario. Before you do this, you need to know a team’s attack strength and defence strength.

To determine how strong a team’s attack rating is, you need to establish the average number of goals scored per team, per game (home and away). To find the averages, you simply divide the number of goals scored (home) by the number of games in a season. To find the away goals average, you do the same thing.

Once you’ve established the attack strength, you need to calculate how strong a team is defensively. To work out the defence strength, you take the above equations and change goals scored to goals conceded.

genuine fixed matches

When you’ve completed these equations, you should have four numbers:

  • Attack Strength Home
  • Attack Strength Away
  • Defence Strength Home
  • Defence Strength Away

Now you can start to determine how strong a team is in relation to the league average. For example, if Arsenal scored 35 goals at home in 19 games, the attack strength would be 1.842 (35/19). From here, let’s assume the league attack strength (home) from the previous season is 1.492 (i.e. 567 goals divided by 380 games).

With these two figures, you divide Arsenal’s score by the season average which, in this case, equals 1.235 (1.842/1.492). Once you’ve got the home team’s attack strength, you go through the same process to determine the away team’s defence strength.

At this point, you’ll have two numbers. For the purposes of this example, let’s say the opposing team (Chelsea) has a defence strength (away) of 0.881. From here, you can multiply these two numbers by the season average to get a final value:

1.235 x 0.881 x 1.492 = 1.623

What this basically means is, according to the statistics, Arsenal are likely to score 1.623 goals against Chelsea.

There will be other mitigating factors around the game which you can apply to the maths in order to help your final judgement on the game, such as injuries and current form.

genuine fixed matches

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