Atl. Madrid – Huesca : 1 Odd:1.40 FT: 2:0
Ajax – Utrecht : 1 Odd:1.40 FT: 1:1
Barcelona – Getafe : Under 3.5 goals Odd:1.50 FT:4:2
Soccer Fixed Matches Betting
We’ve already touched very briefly on the subject of comparing the overall quality of football teams before making predictions. There’s obviously some merit in carrying out these comparisons, as it’s a good way to start forming some opinions about how a game of football might play out. In theory, the better team is always going to be more likely to win. So that’s something you can factor in when looking for betting opportunities.
It’s important to note that it’s not only the quality of teams that affects the outcome of games though. The circumstances surrounding a game of football have an effect too. And they are always unique to each individual game in some way. No two situations are exactly the same.
This is one reason why predicting the outcomes of games can be so difficult. It’s hard to take everything into account and accurately assess just how much influence the various different factors may have. Situational handicapping is a broad strategy where the aim is to do exactly that though.
The fundamental idea here is to first consider which variables are going to affect the outcome of a game. Then you try to figure out what impact those variables will have. This can help you make informed judgements about what’s likely to happen.
Here’s a list of some of the situational factors you should be looking at.
- Playing Conditions
- The performance of some teams can improve or drop based on the playing conditions. Consider factors such as the surface, the weather and the stadium.
- Teams on winning streaks will want to keep winning, while their opponents may be fired up to stop them. Teams on losing streaks will be low on confidence, while their opponents may underestimate them.
- How far has the road team had to travel? Have they gone across time zones? These things regularly affect performances.
- Previous Matchups
- Is one team going to be out for revenge? That can be a big motivating factor.
- The Standings
- Do both teams have playoff hopes still? Just one team? A game between two teams with something to play for can be very different from a game where there’s nothing at stake for one team.
- Injuries can have a big effect on teams, particularly if it’s big name players that are missing.
- The Schedule
- Have the players had much rest recently? Have they been playing a number of tough games in the last few weeks, or have they had a relatively easy run of games?
Basic Value Betting
The concept of value is something you HAVE to be aware of if you want the best chance of making money from betting on football. Trying to make accurate predictions isn’t enough by itself; you also have to look into different bookmakers. It’s possible that their odds could leave ample opportunity for extra value.
Here’s a somewhat extreme example to illustrate this point.
Two football teams are playing a game towards the end of the season. The home team has been absolutely flying, and has lost only one game so far. The road team has been struggling, and has only won two games. To make matters worse, they’ve just lost two important players to injury.
After comparing the overall quality of the two teams, you’re understandably convinced that the home team is going to win the game comfortably, so you’re planning a big bet on the moneyline. Now let’s say that the odds offered on this team to win are -10,000.
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